It’s kind of hard to know. Without covid, would George Floyd have still been killed? The unrest over last summer combined with the poor response to the pandemic fired up opposition but it also fired up his base.
If Trump had taken the situation seriously and demanded a 90 national shutdown like other leaders around the world, Floyd would not have been out when he was killed and the whole BLM protests likely would not have happened. He would have looked like an effective leader and his opposition would have largely been tamed. It would not have been unrealistic to expect him to win a majority of the popular vote and a substantial win in the Electoral College under this situation.
Without covid at all I think his chances were 50/50, but in that situation I think his base would have still been as excited to vote for him but the strength of the opposition would have been the unknowable variable.